Industry Insights Blog Jan 2026
Where Risk Is Building, and How to Protect Time-Critical Shipments
This briefing breaks down what’s changing, why it matters, and what you can do about it in an increasingly unpredictable freight environment.
Chinese New Year: A Predictable Disruption
With Chinese New Year coming up in February, supply chain disruption out of Asia begins weeks before the holiday and extends well beyond it. The risk isn’t the date itself, it’s the early production slowdowns and tightening capacity that follow.
What shippers typically see:
- Factory shutdowns and reduced output ahead of the holiday
- re-holiday export surges that strain ocean and air capacity
- Increased blank sailings, rolled bookings, and tighter air uplift
Why it matters: When planning slips, small delays can cascade into missed delivery windows, production downtime, or premium freight costs for February and March shipments.
Read more in our Market Report.
As we navigated through the month of January 2026, several converging trends emerged across truckload, LTL, ocean, air, and cross-border freight. The likelihood of operational disruption is especially high for organizations shipping time-critical, high-value, or regulated freight.
Truckload Capacity: Volatility Is the Real Threat
While freight demand remains uneven, early indicators point toward tightening truckload capacity in select lanes. Market conditions are signaling that volatility, not outright shortage, is becoming the dominant risk factor.
As truckload coverage becomes less predictable, shippers are already seeing:
- Increased tender rejections
- Reduced flexibility on short-notice pickups
- Wider pricing gaps between committed and spot coverage
Why this matters operationally:
When capacity tightens unevenly, the risk isn’t cost alone; it’s service failure. Time-critical freight that depends on last-minute coverage becomes vulnerable to delays, missed appointments, and downstream penalties.
Sources:
https://www.chrobinson.com/en-us/resources/insights-and-advisories/north-america-freight-insights/
https://kchtrans.com/january-2025-monthly-freight-market-update/
What You Can Do About It
- Avoid single-carrier dependency for time-critical shipments
- Secure primary and secondary coverage options in advance
- Separate “must-deliver” freight from standard shipments in routing decisions
- Plan capacity at the lane level rather than relying on national averages
LTL Networks: The Hidden Pressure Point
As truckload capacity tightens, smaller shipments increasingly migrate into LTL networks. This shift can strain terminals, especially when weather or regional surges disrupt normal flow.
Common LTL risk signals include:
- Missed pickups
- Extended transit times
- Reduced appointment reliability
- Limited accountability once freight enters the network
Why this matters operationally:
LTL is efficient—until it isn’t. For time-critical freight, one missed cross-dock window can cascade into multi-day delays.
What You Can Do About It
- Clearly distinguish between time-sensitive and cost-sensitive LTL shipments
- Consider alternative modes, such as partial, dedicated, or expedited, when the cost of failure is high
- Monitor carrier performance by lane, not just carrier brand
- Escalate exceptions early, before delays compound
Learn More about our ground transportation services: https://shippgl.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/PGL-Ground-Transportation-One-Sheet.pdf
Weather Disruption: The Multiplier Effect
Winter weather continues to impact freight corridors across the U.S., but the real cost often isn’t the initial delay; it’s the compounding effect.
Weather-driven disruption frequently leads to:
- Missed delivery appointments
- Re-delivery and detention fees
- Increased internal workload managing exceptions
- Lost confidence from customers or partners
Transport Topics continues to report widespread weather-related slowdowns affecting trucking operations this season.
Source:
https://www.ttnews.com/
What You Can Do About It
- Build additional buffer time into winter-critical shipments
- Monitor weather risk by corridor, not just origin and destination
- Define internal triggers for early intervention when delays appear likely
- Assign clear ownership for exception resolution to avoid reactive firefighting
Ocean Freight: Rate Movement ≠ Schedule, Stability
Early 2026 saw a rise in transpacific ocean rates, driven by seasonal demand and carrier capacity management. At the same time, carriers continue to rely on blank sailings to balance their networks.
Even when overall demand appears soft, schedule reliability remains fragile.
Key risks include:
- Rolled bookings
- Last-minute vessel changes
- Missed cutoffs impacting inland connections
Sources:
https://www.splash247.com/category/sector/containers/
https://www.joc.com/
What You Can Do About It
- Plan ocean moves around the schedule risk, not just the rate levels
- Confirm inland and drayage connections earlier in the planning cycle
- Build contingencies for rolled cargo or vessel changes
- Avoid single-vessel dependency for time-critical imports
Learn More about our Ocean Freight services:
https://shippgl.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/PGL-Ocean-Freight-One-Sheet.pdf
https://shippgl.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/PGL-LCL-Consolidation-One-Sheet.pdf
Air Freight: Capacity Is Lane-Specific
Air freight demand remains uneven, but select lanes, particularly ex-Asia, are experiencing tightening uplift availability. This impacts organizations relying on air freight for:
- Product launches
- Line-down prevention
- High-value or regulated shipments
Source:
https://www.aircargonews.net/
What You Can Do About It
- Book uplift earlier on high-risk or constrained lanes
- Evaluate direct versus deferred routing trade-offs carefully
- Align air freight usage with true business-critical requirements
- Reduce dwell time at handoff and transfer points
Learn More about our Air Freight and Aerospace Services:
https://shippgl.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/PGL-Air-Freight-One-Sheet.pdf
https://shippgl.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/PGL-Aerospace-One-Sheet.pdf
Cross-Border: Growth Creates New Constraints
U.S.-Mexico trade continues to grow, but increased volume can tighten capacity at key border crossings, particularly during peak periods or heightened inspection activity.
According to Supply Chain Dive, cross-border logistics remains a strategic growth area, but one that requires strong planning and compliance readiness.
Source:
https://www.supplychaindive.com/
What You Can Do About It
- Secure vetted carrier and partner networks in advance
- Prepare customs documentation early to avoid inspection delays
- Build flexibility into border crossing schedules
- Identify alternate crossings when congestion increases
Learn More about our Customs and Cross-Border Services:
https://shippgl.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/PGL-Cross-Border-One-Sheet.pdf
https://shippgl.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/PGL-Customs-Brokerage-One-Sheet.pdf
The Bigger Picture: Risk Is Becoming Fragmented
Across all modes, the common thread isn’t cost pressure; it’s fragmented accountability.
Internal teams are often forced to manage:
- Multiple carriers
- Limited shipment visibility
- Inconsistent service performance
- Constant exception handling
This is where logistics shifts from a transportation function into a business risk exposure.
Turning Insight Into Action
Market conditions will continue to change, but operational risk can be managed.
Organizations that perform best in volatile environments tend to:
- Separate critical freight from standard moves
- Plan for disruption before it happens
- Centralize visibility and exception management
- Make decisions based on risk exposure, not just cost
If you have time-critical shipments moving in the weeks ahead, reach out to one of our experts at PGL. We can help you evaluate current conditions and determine the right approach to protect your timelines, customers, and operations.
https://calendly.com/shippgl-marketing/sales-consultation?month=2026-01
Request a Quote here:
https://shippgl.com/request-a-quote/
Sources & Further Reading
- CH Robinson – North America Freight Insights
https://www.chrobinson.com/en-us/resources/insights-and-advisories/north-america-freight-insights/ - KCH Transportation – Monthly Freight Market Update
https://kchtrans.com/january-2025-monthly-freight-market-update/ - Transport Topics
https://www.ttnews.com/ - Journal of Commerce
https://www.joc.com/ - Splash247
https://www.splash247.com/category/sector/containers/ - Air Cargo News
https://www.aircargonews.net/ - Supply Chain Dive
https://www.supplychaindive.com/
As always, PGL is here for you, 24/7/365.
Follow @shipPGL and visit GoPGL.com for ongoing market insights.
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